Plug-in electric vehicles achieve a 28% market share in Germany in August!
The German market for plug-in vehicles recorded over 53,000 registrations last month, with BEVs growing faster (+ 80% YoY) than PHEVs (+ 43%). As a result, last month’s plugin release ended 28% (15% BEV). If one also takes into account the significant decline in the overall market (-23% YoY / year compared to the previous year), this means that gasoline sales (-42% YoY) and even more so diesel sales (-51%) are falling from a cliff.
This is what a fault looks like …
The annual market share of plug-in vehicles remained stable at 23% (11% BEV). There were 421,262 plug-in vehicle registrations in the first eight months of the year. This market is firmly in The fault zone and well above last year’s result of 14% market share for plug-in vehicles. Will we see the final market share hit in 2021?
Looking at last month’s bestsellers, the small Volkswagen e-Up (2,411 units) was surpassed this time by its sibling ID.3 with the best number of points this year with 3,750 registrations and the Tesla Model 3 with the best number of points in the low-load month of all time in Germany thanks to 2,946 registrations.
With both the German hatchback and the American midizer showing strong performances in one of the slowest months of the year, in my opinion the story is firm for the rest of the year: it will be a duel between VW ID.3 and Tesla Model 3.
With these values, the compact ID.3 EV reached 5th place in the overall market, only made it into the top 5 for the second time, the other took 3rd place in the Preregistrations inflated Month of December 2020. So you could say that is really the first top 5 ranking of the ID.3. The Model 3 also reached a top 10 position in the overall market last month, ending at 8th in August. And that happened in a month of low occupancy, so imagine how high it will get in September…. However, the ID.3 also seems to be on the up, so I’m wondering if both will hit 5,000 next month and how high those results will be. But more on that later….
Off the podium, we have the Mercedes GLC300e / de in 4th place, with 1,877 units, a new annual record and thus also the best-selling PHEV of the last month. Behind that we have the Renault Zoe, which is slowly regaining its shape. In the 6th we have the Cupra Formentor PHEV. It looks like the sporty crossover hit a nerve with buyers, which makes us want Cupra’s iteration of the MEB platform crossover (the Cupra Tavascan) even more than before. Hurry up with it
The highlight in the second half of the table is the landing of the Tesla Model Y at # 16 with 864 registrations, a strong start for a model that is expected to do even better than its sibling Model 3. Expect a few monthly wins for the crossover and a podium presence soon next year on the German plugin market. Of the remaining top 10, the Fiat 500e is mentioned with almost record-breaking 1,285 deliveries. The little Italian finished 9th last month, just behind the # 8 Skoda Enyaq, which again managed to beat its Volkswagen counterpart, the # 10 ID.4, on its own territory. Ouch, that must hurt …
Another new addition to the market is the Hyundai Ioniq 5, which debuted at number 18 thanks to 783 registrations. Expect the Retro XL hatchback to become a regular face on the table.
Outside of that top 20, the Kia Soul EV scored its best year-end rating with 358 registrations, while the quirky Mazda MX-30 had the best new year with 409 units.
We should also mention BMW BEVs. While the small i3 (612 registrations) already seems to be on the way to the Great Beyond, the Chinese-made iX3 is finally starting to move in good quantities. It hit a record 386 registrations last month. The iX yacht had 282 registrations in the market in the second month, which is still a low number. For comparison: the Audi e-tron moved 643 units last month. But it’s still early. Let’s see how quickly BMW can ramp up production of its huge electric SUV.
With this in mind, BMW presents the beginning of the end of the i3 with a problem. The company does not have an immediate BEV bestseller in its range. It’s true the i4 is coming, but I wonder how high a BEV version of a somewhat niche model (4 series) can go. Top 20 seems safe, but will it make it into the top 10?
In the 2021 table, the Volkswagen e-Up lost ground to the other two front-runners Volkswagen ID.3 and Tesla Model 3. The German compact EV also won critical over the Californian in August. With September set to deliver strong / record numbers for both e-Up competitors, we should see some changes on the podium as Volkswagen tries to replace the e-Up with the ID.3 at the top while trying to keep September going Peak Effect of Model 3. This could turn into a complicated formula. Perhaps Volkswagen should call a quantum physics expert, or Stephen Hawking’s best student, to make this happen.
One thing is certain: the last quarter of the year will bring a close race between the Volkswagen ID.3 and the Tesla Model 3, i.e. popcorn. The coming months will be fun.
Elsewhere, the Hyundai Kona EV # 5 and Renault Zoe # 6 have made up ground versus the Volkswagen Golf PHEV # 4, so we could soon see a 100 percent BEV top 5.
In the second half of the table we have a new face, with the popular Skoda Enyaq, which starts its career in 19th place in the table and allows BEVs to outperform plug-in hybrids in the table (11 vs. 9). Two more BEVs are also on the rise. The Volkswagen ID.4 climbed to # 11. (Somehow we still expected more, didn’t we? Like a top 10 placement as an absolute minimum.) The Fiat 500e also outperformed its Stellantis partner, the Opel Corsa EV, and finished at # 16 in August. The small EV is becoming just as popular in the EV class as the regular Fiat 500 is in the overall market, and its success story offers a glimmer of hope for European city car production. You can be successful and profitable in the small EV category without relocating production to China.
In the brand ranking, Volkswagen (17%, minus 1 percentage point) clearly leads the home market, followed by Mercedes (11%) and BMW (10%), while Audi # 4 (8%) is not too far away. The “Volkswagen Premium” brand has a comfortable lead over Hyundai, Renault and Skoda with 5% each.
Looking at the ranking by OEM, the ranking remained the same, although the Volkswagen Group had its home market well under control. It has an impressive share of 36%, followed by Daimler (14%, minus 1 point) and BMW Group (11%).
The best-selling foreign (well, mostly foreign …) automobile company was Stellantis (9%). Stellantis is once again delivering solid performances all over Europe and especially in Germany without shaking the boat, and is ahead of the Hyundai-Kia collaboration no.
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