Old internal combustion engines are falling to below 50% in Germany, as plugins are conquering over a third of the market
Europe’s largest car market, Germany, recorded a share of 34.4% compared to plug-in electric vehicles in November, compared to 20.5% a year ago. Fully electric (BEV) alone had a share of 20.3%, well ahead of diesel with a share of 15.8%. The share of combined legacy internal combustion engines fell below 50% for the first time. With 198,298 sales, the entire car market fell by around 34% compared to November 2019.
The combined plug-in result in November of 34.4% included full battery electrics (BEV) with 20.3% and plug-in hybrid PHEVs with 14.1%. This means that the reweighting of BEVs will continue in the last 4 months, based on more even weightings in the first half of 2021 and throughout 2020.
The cumulative plugin share for 2021 is now 25.1% after 12.0% at this point last year. In the past three months, a combined plug-in share of 31.2% was recorded, with BEVs alone accounting for 18.2%.
Plugins have sold 600,222 units in the year to date, an increase of 92% compared to 311,854 units year-on-year. The full year 2021 should exceed a total of 700,000.
After the first time in September, the BEV share (20.3%) beats the diesel again and is expected to be ahead every month. Petrol had the largest single share at 33.3%, but at 66,020 units it was almost half as strong as a year ago (117,220 units).
Legacy combustion engines (petrol and diesel without electrical support) fell below 50% for the first time in modern times at 49.1%. There is a slim chance they will see the 50% sunny side briefly in early 2021, but overall they are on an inevitable downtrend.
The proportion of plugless hybrids appears to have leveled off in the 18% to 19% range in August and September, but has fallen to the 15 to 16% range in the past two months as PHEVs and BEVs are obviously more preferred.
Best-selling BEVs Until the end of October
As always we have no model data for November still, but we can now look back on the last 3 months to the end of October to see which BEVs have recently sold well (repeat – not the current numbers):
As in the whole of 2021, the Tesla Model 3 tops the sales charts, with the Volkswagen ID.3 landing in second place.
Third place was recently a more balanced race between two compact cars, the Renault Zoe and the VW e-Up !, with the Skoda Enyaq also in the mix.
In 6th place the small and very affordable Smart fortwo. Will the even cheaper Dacia Spring be added soon? Measured against the October deliveries of 421 units for spring (already on par with the October volume of the Nissan Leaf), that could happen if it can stay on this trajectory. As with most of the best value BEVs, it seems likely that supply (rather than demand) will be the limiting factor for spring.
We can expect that newer BEV models such as the Tesla Model Y, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and soon the BMW i4 will climb the charts in the coming months.
Look out for Jose’s report later in the month to see the November BEV model rankings.
Breaking the “one-third share” limit is a remarkable milestone for plugins in Germany. Don’t forget that as of November just two years ago, plugins accounted for 3.7% in the country. When older internal combustion engines drop below 50%, that is also a major victory against pollution, emissions and corruption and fossil fuel violence.
December is always a peak month for plugin stock, thanks in large part to Tesla’s pressure on old European automakers (thanks Tesla), and this year won’t be an exception. I’m expecting almost 40% of the plugin’s share in December, and it could be even higher.
What do you think of the German EV market? Please let us know in the comments.
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