Ford has the No. 1 plugin vehicle in Germany in October!
17% of new car sales in Germany are fully electric, 32% have a plug
The German automotive market appears to have bottomed out and is back on a growth course. October brought a solid 17% increase in sales, but it still wasn’t enough to pull the year-to-date (YTD) numbers out of the red (-6% YoY). Sales of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) were in line with the overall market and grew 17% year-on-year (YoY). There were 35,781 BEV registrations last month, which incidentally also made up 17% of the total market. On the other hand, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) surged 35%, the fastest growth rate since August 2021. Expect that number to grow even more over the last two months of the year. In December there should be a sales rush, because next year PHEVs will no longer be eligible for EV incentives. Either way, PHEVs had 32,064 registrations in October, or 15% of the total car market.
Plug-in vehicle share of 32% in October held year-to-date at 29% (16% BEV). A 30%-ish Earnings by the end of the year not only seem possible, but probable.
The German plugin market is known for surprises, and October brought another one. After a close race with the Fiat 500e, the Ford Kuga PHEV (Euro specification Ford Escape) won the bestseller title in October!
And with PHEV incentives ending soon, you can expect the compact Ford to continue to perform strongly over the next two months. Though it probably won’t win any more bestselling titles this year because BEVs will also get fewer incentives from January 1st, which means that brands like Tesla, Volkswagen, maybe Opel and others will flood the German market with plugins in the last two months of the year, especially in December. Many different electric vehicles will compete to benefit from the 2022 version of the incentives. So expect a large number of pre-registered units sitting on dealer lots awaiting a buyer in January and a bigger sales hangover in the first quarter of 2023….
In Tesla’s specific case, this is the main reason why it is concentrating its European supplies in Germany, even at the cost of starving other European markets.
But back to the October results, we have another surprise on the last place on the podium. The VW ID.3 received 2,160 registrations, the best result since September 2021. Expect a top month for the hatchback next December.
But not only the ID.3 delivered a good result for Volkswagen, the VW ID.4 also ended the month in fifth place with 1,701 deliveries Spaniards Cupra Formentor PHEV finished fourth with 1,942 units.
Also of some surprise is the fact that both Teslas ended the first month of this quarter in the top 10. The Model Y was 6th with 1,622 deliveries and the Model 3 was 7th with 1,563 deliveries. This is the best first month of the quarter ever in Germany.
Does this mean that both will post record results in December?
Well…there are good arguments on both sides. On the one hand, these early results have more to do with allocation policy than any measure of demand — since Tesla shipped boats from Giga Shanghai in the final weeks of the last quarter, the vehicles reached Europe earlier than usual. It is only natural that these units would register earlier (in the first month of the quarter) than later.
As for the Model Y, there are of course more units available for delivery in Germany right at the start of the quarter due to Giga Berlin’s production ramp-up and Tesla’s prioritization of the German market.
BUT – since these units will be delivered earlier, it all depends on the demand side and how many pre-registrations Tesla is willing to take this quarter to know how many units Tesla will ship in Germany in the next two months. record months? Maybe, but at this point I honestly don’t know. Be continued.
At number 8 we have the Opel Mokka EV with a record 1,531 registrations, while at number 10 we have a tie between two plug-in hybrids that achieved impressive results in the last month. The Mercedes A250e PHEV and BMW 3 Series PHEV each registered 1,263 units, with the Mercedes posting its best result in 17 months while the BMW posting its best result over two years. Expect both models to continue to improve and benefit over the coming months End of incentives – derived sales rush.
Other models also shone in the second half of the table, such as the #14 VW Tiguan PHEV, which achieved its best performance to date with 1,132 registrations. The German brand milks everything it can out of the compact SUV before it’s too late (end of incentives). So expect December to be an even bigger month for the Tiguan.
But there were also BEVs that hit record highs, like the #19 Renault Megane EV with 1,076 registrations. The French marque hopes to repeat at least some of the success that the Renault Zoe once had across the Rhine. Polestar 2 entered the table in 20th place thanks to a record 1,073 registrations. This latest result signals Volvo’s newfound belief in BEVs. Apart from that record and the Swedes’ top 20 presence casual cousinThe company’s own BEV models also achieved record values in October. The sporty C40 EV received 347 approvals, and all the more stuck XC40 EV had 459 deliveries.
Outside of the top 20, there’s a lot to talk about. Alongside the strong results of the Mini Cooper EV (1,019 registrations) and the Audi Q4 e-tron (1,031 registrations), we should also mention the competitive MG 4’s first full month of deliveries. With 433 admissions, he is undoubtedly a strong contender for a top 20 presence next year. We should also be able to celebrate a record result for the BMW i4 in our home market… 403 registrations. yes, that low Perhaps BMW is trying to milk everything out of the PHEV versions of the 3 Series before it starts shipping the i4 in relevant quantities next year?
But still… during the same period, arch-rival Mercedes had three BEV models to outperform the i4, with the EQA scoring 780 registrations (a new annual best), the EQB scoring a record 650 registrations and even the older EQC registering 524 units… in addition to an extensive Mercedes PHEV program.
While the brand with the three-pointed star also has its issues – for example, the long-awaited EQE had just 300 deliveries last month, or almost four times fewer than the class-leading Audi e-tron (1,141 units) – but it seems Mercedes has a more consistent lineup for the upcoming 2023 BEV-heavy German market.
Or, of course, the upcoming BMW iX1 crossover could change all of that… (fingers crossed that it works).
There was a lot to talk about in terms of the 2022 table. Thanks to a great October, the Ford Kuga PHEV overtook the Tesla Model 3 to climb to last place on the podium, but with less than 20 units separating them, anything can happen.
The same goes for the #2 Fiat 500e. While the #1 Tesla Model Y is untouchable, the 2,255-unit lead the 500e has over the US sedan may not be enough to retain the silver medal. Depending on the American brand’s allocation policy, we could still have a surprising result in December, allowing Tesla to have models in the first two positions… in the German Plugin vehicle market.
Otherwise, the Volkswagen Group continued to recover from a weak first half of the year. The VW ID.3 jumped two places to 7th place, while the sporty Cupra Formentor PHEV is now in 5th place. Further down was the Skoda Enyaq in 11th, while the Audi e-tron veteran reconfirmed its lead in the full-size category by moving up one position to 13th. That’s an impressive feat considering the big Audi will soon be heavily revised, even entitled to a new name: Audi Q8 e-tron.
In the second half of the table, another model moves up with the design icon Hyundai Ioniq 5 climbs to 12th place. It benefited from the BMW i3’s slow journey to EV heaven, a place where Fast chargers are plentiful, reliable, use renewable energy and are not blocked by internal combustion engines!
/Earth: Considering that PHEVs will lose incentive over the next year and their market share will therefore shrink significantly, it is interesting to see that of the four plug-in hybrid models in this top 20 list, only one is a direct BEV -Replacement has (BMW 3 series PHEV -> BMW i4). And yet the i4 lacks the all-important station wagon body. But for the other three PHEVs (Ford Kuga PHEV, Cupra Formentor PHEV, Mitsubishi Eclipse PHEV), buyers will not have direct replacements from their respective brands. Mitsubishi is still years away from having a new BEV in Europe, Ford only has the more expensive Mustang Mach-E as a BEV, and Cupras Born is a regular hatchback and the upcoming Tavascan, Cupra’s interpretation of the VW ID.4 formula, is not scheduled to hit the market until 2024. These three models represent around 50,000 vehicles sold per year. where will you go purgatory
In the brand ranking, Volkswagen (10.7%) consolidated its top position, Mercedes (10%) overtook BMW (9.1%) in the race for second place. With Volkswagen back in its natural position and Mercedes in second place, the plugin market is getting closer to the overall market (#1 Volkswagen, #2 Mercedes, #3 Audi, #4 BMW).
Off the podium, Tesla (7.4%) held the #4 position, but #5 Audi (7.4%) is now just 143 units behind. Among them, #6 Hyundai (6%) is too far behind to pose a threat.
Looking at the ranking by OEM, the placement remained the same. The Volkswagen Group (26.9%) has its home market well under control. Far behind is Stellantis (12.7%), while #3 Mercedes (11.6%) overtook the #4 BMW Group (11%) and is now looking to match the multinational conglomerate and second place in 2022. Can Mercedes overtake Stellantis?
The #5 Hyundai-Kia alliance (10%) is ahead of the #6 Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance (8.1%).
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