Global CO2 emissions are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels next year, according to an assessment released Thursday ahead of a landmark deal by leading economies to end direct funding of fossil fuel projects overseas by 2022.

The grim emissions assessment was seen as a “reality check” for the nations gathered at the COP26 Summit in Glasgow as a last chance to stop catastrophic climate change.

This week’s moderate progress was verified by the release of the Global Carbon Project’s annual report, which showed that gas and coal emissions will rise more rapidly in 2021 than they fell during the pandemic.

It suggested that CO2 emissions could eclipse the 40 billion tonne record set in 2019, which some have predicted – and many have hoped – would spike. China alone will account for 31 percent of global emissions this year to boost its economy beyond Covid-19, the report said.

“This report is a reality check,” co-author Corinne Le Quere, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, UK, told AFP. “It shows what is happening in the real world as we talk about tackling climate change here in Glasgow.”

“Right Side of History” – The report came about when two pledges from nations and financial institutions paved the way for an accelerated move away from dirty energy. Twenty countries, including major donors from the United States and Canada, have pledged to “end new direct public support for the international undiminished fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022”.

Undiminished fossil fuel projects are those that do not use technology to absorb the carbon pollution they cause. Analysts said the decision could result in more than $ 15 billion annually being turned away from coal, oil and gas and turned into green energy instead. China, South Korea, and Japan – all major overseas fossil fuel donors – have not signed, although these countries have separately made similar commitments.

While ending international funding is seen as a boost to the COP26 summit and key to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, it is even more important that the domestic one Coal use by far the dirtiest fossil fuel.

Host Britain announced that more than 40 countries have committed to phasing out coal within their borders within decades. Among the signatories were South Korea, Indonesia and Poland – all in the top ten worldwide in terms of coal-fired power plant capacity.

The organizers of COP26 say 23 countries had promised to stop using coal for the first time, even though several of those nations, including Poland, have in fact already expired commitments to phase out. Earlier this week, more than 100 countries agreed to cut their emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, by at least 30 percent this decade.

However, China and India – the first and fourth largest emitters of greenhouse gases, respectively – have not signed any of the pledges. Man-made methane emissions come mainly from gas leaks, livestock, landfills and agriculture. The G20 agreed last month to end funding new unabated coal-fired power plants abroad, but Thursday’s commitment is the first of its kind to include oil and gas projects.

“Shut off the cone” – The International Energy Agency has said that as of today there will be no new fossil fuel projects – at home or abroad – in order to keep the 1.5C target in play. Recent research by Oil Change International has shown that the G20 funded fossil fuel projects abroad with nearly $ 200 billion between 2018 and 2020, mainly through multilateral development banks.

“At this point last year, I didn’t think countries would commit to end billions of dollars in support of international fossil fuel projects,” said Kate DeAngelis, international finance program manager at Friends of the Earth US. “While this is a welcome step forward, countries, especially the US, must stick to these commitments and cut off affiliation with fossil fuel companies.”

Thousands of delegates from nearly 200 nations are in Glasgow to make progress on the goals of the Paris Agreement. You are faced with arduous negotiations about emission reductions, financial support for climate-endangered nations and the finalization of rules for CO2 markets and a uniform “balance sheet” of the national CO2 saving plans.

Finance is a particularly big point of contention as nations already grappling with extremely charged droughts and floods provide wealthy emitters with money and expertise to help them green their grids and adapt to climate change. On Thursday, the UN announced that developing countries needed up to ten times more funding than currently available.

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